NERC’s latest Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA), highlights escalating resource adequacy risks across North America’s bulk power system over the next decade.
- Summer peak demand is projected to rise by 224 GW, a 69% increase from the 2024 forecast, driven largely by new data centers for AI and the digital economy.
- Winter demand growth is even more pronounced, with a 246 GW increase expected over the same period, reflecting shifting electricity usage patterns.
Uncertainty surrounding the pace of new resource additions, particularly as 105 GW of seasonal capacity is slated for retirement, raises concerns about supply shortfalls. The generation mix is transitioning toward solar, battery storage, and natural gas, with the latter accounting for 15% of planned capacity additions.
NERC urges accelerated infrastructure development, streamlined permitting, and enhanced coordination between electric and gas systems to mitigate reliability risks.